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Weather Impacts

We are bringing scientists and engineers working on infrastructure impact modeling together with atmospheric scientists working on weather extremes to focus on the consequences of extreme wind, extreme precipitation, fire weather, and biochemical dispersion. The goals of the workshop are (i) to identify the science challenges affecting their work, (ii) to outline how to improve infrastructure impact models, and (iii) to document gaps between existing and desired analytic capabilities. The phenomena under consideration include hurricanes, ice storms, extreme precipitation, extreme convection, heat, flooding, drought, climate change, etc. Impacts time scales vary from a few hours (predictive and emergency response) to decades (engineering design and community planning). The workshop will focus on documenting requirements, building collaborations, identifying research gaps, and proposing steps forward.

Selected Publications

A. Ivey, L. Toole, B. Bush, and S. Fernandez, “Impacts of Hurricanes on Critical Infrastructure,” presented at the U.S. Department of Energy GIS Expo, Washington, D.C.

R. Bent, B. Bhaduri, D. Billingsley, A. Boissonnade, J. Bossert, R. Bowne, M. Brown, A. Burris, B. Bush, J. Coen, C. Davis, J. Doyle, R. Erickson, M. Ewers, S. Fernandez, P. Fitzpatrick, J. Florez, A. Ganguly, G. Geernaert, E. Gilleland, R. Gislason, F. Griffith, R. Haut, K. Henson, G. Holland, M. Kramer, R. LeClaire, R. Linn, R. Lopez, A. Lynch, L. Margolin, J. Maslanik, D. O’Brien, D. Parsons, D. Pasqualini, P. Patelli, W. Priedhorsky, E. Regnier, T. Ringler, J. Rush, P. Sheng, S. Swerdlin, E. Van Eeckhout, R. Wagoner, S. Walden, T. Warner, J. Wegiel, P. Welsh, L. Wilder, B. Wolshon, and Y. Zhang, “Recommendations for Research on Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure,” Workshop on Weather Extremes Impacts on Infrastructure.

R. Bent, B. Bhaduri, D. Billingsley, A. Boissonnade, J. Bossert, R. Bowne, M. Brown, A. Burris, B. Bush, J. Coen, C. Davis, J. Doyle, R. Erickson, M. Ewers, S. Fernandez, P. Fitzpatrick, J. Florez, A. Ganguly, G. Geernaert, E. Gilleland, R. Gislason, F. Griffith, R. Haut, K. Henson, G. Holland, M. Kramer, R. LeClaire, R. Linn, R. Lopez, A. Lynch, L. Margolin, J. Maslanik, D. O’Brien, D. Parsons, D. Pasqualini, P. Patelli, W. Priedhorsky, E. Regnier, T. Ringler, J. Rush, P. Sheng, S. Swerdlin, E. Van Eeckhout, R. Wagoner, S. Walden, T. Warner, J. Wegiel, P. Welsh, L. Wilder, B. Wolshon, and Y. Zhang, “Précis of Recommendations for Research on Extreme Weather Impacts on Infrastructure,” Workshop on Weather Extremes Impacts on Infrastructure.

B. Bush, “Critical Infrastructure Analysis for Extreme Weather Events,” Los Alamos National Laboratory.

B. W. Bush, “Extreme Weather Coupled to Infrastructure Damage,” Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Bush, B. and Ivey, A., “Numerical Hurricane Model Outputs for GIS-Based Infrastructure Damage Estimation,” in 2006 ESRI Federal User Conference, Washington, D.C. <http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/feduc06/docs/hurricane_damage_model.pdf>
The wind and precipitation fields forecast by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, combined with the output of storm surge models, can provide estimates of damage to infrastructures such as the electric power grid several days before a hurricane makes landfall. Having the hourly forecasts of grid-based meteorological fields imported into a GIS enables an analyst to compute the cumulative effects over time of wind and rain and, subsequently, to overlay these with storm surge, elevation, and infrastructure data in order to categorize the forecast exposure of facilities to extreme weather. Calibrated heuristic models are then applied within the GIS to compute expected damage from the forecasted exposure. We provide examples for hurricanes from the 2005 season in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico using the output of several publicly available NWP model forecasts; similar methods apply to other types of extreme weather such as ice storms.

Fernandez, S.J., Bush, B., Toole, G.L., Dauelsberg, L., Flaim, S., Thayer, G.R., and Ivey, A., “Predicting Hurricane Impacts on the Nation’s Infrastructure: Lessons Learned from the 2005 Hurricane Season,” in Second International Conference on Global Warming, Santa Fe, New Mexico.
During the 2005 Hurricane season, many consequence predictions were available to key Federal agencies from 36 to 96 hours before each of the major hurricane US mainland landfalls. These key forecasts included the location and intensity of the hurricane at landfall, areas of significant damage to engineered infrastructure and lifeline utilities, time estimates to restore critical infrastructure services, and the conditions to be found on the ground as emergency and relief crews enter the area. Both the Department of Energy through its Visualization and Modeling Working Group and the Department of Homeland Security provided early forecasts of potential damage to the regionally critical infrastructures. These products communicated critical information that assisted in the decision-making process for emergency planning.

Fernandez, Steven, Bush, Brian, Toole, G. Loren, Dauelsberg, Lori, and Flaim, Silvio, “Lessons Learned from Infrastructure Impacts of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma,” in 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Mobile, Alabama. <http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc06/Presentations/06%20session6%20Decision-making%20Products/s6-01Fernandez.pdf>

J. Hacker, Brian Bush, and Jennifer Boehnert, “GIS-Based Weather Warnings from a WRF Ensemble,” presented at the 8th WRF Users’ Workshop, Boulder, Colorado.

A. Ivey, L. Toole, B. Bush, and S. Fernandez, “Summary of Critical Infrastructure Hurricane-Impact Estimation Methodology,” Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR-06-1042.

A. Ivey, L. Toole, B. Bush, and S. Fernandez, “Summary of Critical Infrastructure Hurricane-Impact Estimation Methodology,” Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR-06-1042.

Toole, L., Flaim, S., Fernandez, S.J., Bossert, J., Bush, B., and Neenan, B., “Effects of Climate Change on California Energy Security,” in SSR 2006: International Symposium on Systems & Human Science, Vienna, Austria.
Sound energy planning requires an understanding of the primary external drivers that will impact national futures over the next 25 years. One of the principal impacts may be from climate variability—induced by both natural cycles and anthropogenic forcing. The Southwestern United States is a case in point. This semi-arid region has seen its water and landscape resources threatened by extended drought, and it will remain in a precarious position—projected to increase its population by 50% over the next 25 years and highly susceptible to the vagaries of climate change. This study, performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory, focused on climate change impacts that may occur within the regional surrounding California prior to 2035. Results from the Hadley CM-3 climate model were used as drivers for a comprehensive electric energy model of the California regional network. Approximately 57 Gigawatts (GWe) of new generation capacity will be required starting in 2022 due only to population growth and economic expansion. Additional generation capacity will be required starting in 2015 due to climate change to meet higher electricity demand. To pass through or mitigate such effects to the consumer, Federal and state government will require new regulatory and pricing policies. This paper discusses the adaptive changes required to address regulatory, social and physical security issues related to climate change.