Competition for the Uses of Biomass [CUB]
The CUB [Competition for the Uses of Biomass] model is a system dynamics simulation of the competing end-uses of biomass (for biopower, biofuel, traditional uses, and advanced products) and the effect of that competition on biomass and bioenergy markets. The primary goal of the this model is to create a simple yet insightful representation of key decisions and industry dynamics that allows the relative impacts of different policy schemes to be analyzed.
In order to gain more insight into the dynamics that surround the allocation of biomass, the Competition among Uses of Biomass (CUB) model was constructed and implemented in the Biomass Demand Atlas (Bio-atlas). Various types of analyses can be performed through the Bio-atlas that include choosing exogenous end-use demands, imposing penalties or rebates on end-use prices, changing regions, and varying feedstock yields. Many different insights can be gained through varying these parameters, a few of which are outlined in this report. A decrease in feedstock yield may have a greater impact on end-use consumption that a similar increase in yield. Similarly, when feedstock prices increase, cellulosic ethanol appears to have a competitive advantage. Finally, applying penalties and rebates to different end uses causes a differential shift in production over time.
Selected Publications
E. Newes, B. Bush, D. Inman, Y. Lin, T. Mai, A. Martinez, D. Mulcahy, W. Short, T. Simpkins, C. Uriarte, and C. Peck, “Biomass Resource Allocation among Competing End Uses,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, Technical Report NREL/TP-6A20-54217. <http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/1041351/>
The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model developed by the U.S. Department of Energy as a tool to better understand the interaction of complex policies and their potential effects on the biofuels industry in the United States. However, it does not currently have the capability to account for allocation of biomass resources among the various end uses, which limits its utilization in analysis of policies that target biomass uses outside the biofuels industry. This report provides a more holistic understanding of the dynamics surrounding the allocation of biomass among uses that include traditional use, wood pellet exports, bio-based products and bioproducts, biopower, and biofuels by (1) highlighting the methods used in existing models’ treatments of competition for biomass resources; (2) identifying coverage and gaps in industry data regarding the competing end uses; and (3) exploring options for developing models of biomass allocation that could be integrated with the BSM to actively exchange and incorporate relevant information