Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System [CIPDSS]
The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System [CIPDSS] provides information and decision support for the protection of critical infrastructures based on an assessment of risks appropriately accounting for the likelihood of threat, vulnerabilities, and uncertain consequences associated with terrorist activities, natural disasters, and accidents.
CIPDSS is a computer simulation and decision analytic tool that informs users when making difficult choices between alternative mitigation measures and operational tactics, or when allocating limited resources to protect the nation’s critical infrastructures against existing and future threats. CIPDSS integrates event simulation with a risk assessment process, explicitly accounting for uncertainties in threats, vulnerabilities, and the consequences of terrorist acts and natural disasters. CIPDSS models the primary interdependencies that link 17 CIKR together and calculates the impacts that cascade into these interdependent infrastructures and into the national economy.
Selected Publications
B. Bush, L. Dauelsberg, A. Ivey, R. LeClaire, D. Powell, S. DeLand, and M. Samsa, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) Project Overview,” presented at the 3rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Boston.
The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their interdependencies. For example, repairing damage to the electric power grid in a city requires transportation to failure sites and delivery of parts, fuel for repair vehicles, telecommunications for problem diagnosis and coordination of repairs, and the availability of labor. The repair itself involves diagnosis, ordering parts, dispatching crews, and performing work. The electric power grid responds to the initial damage and to the completion of repairs with changes in its operating characteristics. Dynamic processes like these are represented in the CIP/DSS infrastructure sector simulations by differential equations, discrete events, and codified rules of operation. Many of these variables are output metrics estimating the human health, economic, or environmental effects of disturbances to the infrastructures.
A. Berscheid and B. Bush, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Metropolitan Models: PHASE IV Validation Report,” Los Alamos National Laboratory, LA-UR-05-1599.
A. Berscheid and B. Bush, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Models and Simulations: Bioterrorism,” Los Alamos National Laboratory.
B. Bush, Dauelsberg, L., LeClaire, R., Powell, D., DeLand, S., and Samsa, M., “Critical infrastructure protection decision support system (CIP/DSS) project overview,” in Proceedings of the 2005 System Dynamics Conference, Boston. <http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2005/proceed/papers/LECLA332.pdf>
The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their interdependencies. For example, repairing damage to the electric power grid in a city requires transportation to failure sites and delivery of parts, fuel for repair vehicles, telecommunications for problem diagnosis and coordination of repairs, and the availability of labor. The repair itself involves diagnosis, ordering parts, dispatching crews, and performing work. The electric power grid responds to the initial damage and to the completion of repairs with changes in its operating characteristics. Dynamic processes like these are represented in the CIP/DSS infrastructure sector simulations by differential equations, discrete events, and codified rules of operation. Many of these variables are output metrics estimating the human health, economic, or environmental effects of disturbances to the infrastructures.
B. Bush, S. DeLand, and M. Samsa, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) Project Overview,” Los Alamos National Laboratory, Report LA-UR-04-5319.
CIP/DSS Team, “Critical Infrastructure Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) Biological Capability Case Study Summary Report,” Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Dauelsberg, Lori R., Powell, Dennis R., LeClaire, Rene J., Bush, Brian W., DeLand, Sharon M., and Samsa, Michael E., “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Overview,” in Risk Analysis for Homeland Security and Defense Theory and Application, Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Donatella Pasqualini, M. Witkowski, B. Bush, D. Powell, R. LeClaire, L. Dauelsberg, A. Outkin, J. Fair, and P. Klare, “System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support,” presented at the 2005 ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, California.
LeClaire, Rene, Dauelsberg, Lori, Bush, Brian, Beyeler, Walt, Conrad, Stephen, and O’Reilly, Gerard, “Infrastructure Interdependency Consequence Analysis of a Telecommunications Disruption,” in Working Together: R&D Partnerships in Homeland Security, Boston.
The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) is being developed by the Science and Technology Directorate of the Department of Homeland Security to provide a risk-informed decision aid for the evaluation of alternate protective measures and investment strategies in support of critical infrastructure protection. In this paper, we will describe the development of a suite of coupled infrastructure consequence models and their application to the analysis of a disruption in the telecommunications infrastructure. The model suite includes models that operate at different geographic scales (metropolitan and regional/national) to develop a better understanding of both local and national-scale effects. We will present model results for a postulated telecommunications disruption resulting in loss of capacity in three different large metropolitan areas. The results include the interplay between behavioral responses (i.e., increased demand due to a mass calling event) and recovery and restoration within the telecommunications infrastructure as well as impacts in other infrastructures. A multiattribute utility theory based approach was used to evaluate trade-offs between different protective measures. The analysis benefited substantially from knowledge gained from telecommunication industry models and provides an example of how industry and the national laboratories can collaborate in addressing homeland security issues.
LeClaire, Rene, Dauelsberg, Lori, Bush, Brian, Fair, J., Powell, D., Deland, S.M., Beyeler, W.E., Min, H., R. Raynor, M. E. Samsa, R. Whitfield, and G. Hirsch, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System: Evaluation of a Biological Scenario,” in Working Together: R&D Partnerships in Homeland Security, Boston.
Leslie Moore, Dennis Powell, Brian Bush, and Rene LeClaire, “CIPDSS: Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System,” presented at the RSS 2006 Conference, Belfast.
Lori R. Dauelsberg, Dennis R. Powell, Rene J. LeClaire, Brian W. Bush, Sharon M. DeLand, and Michael E. Samsa, “An Overview of CIPDSS,” presented at the Risk Analysis for Homeland Security and Defense Theory and Application, Santa Fe, New Mexico.
M. Samsa, R. Raynor, S. M. DeLand, H.-S. J. Min, D. R. Powell, W. E. Beyeler, G. Hirsch, R. Whitfield, J. Fair, L. Dauelsberg, B. W. Bush, and R. J. LeClaire, “Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System Evaluation of a Biological Scenario.” Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2005-2399C. <http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/966930>